Smart4xTrader - Blogs http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php The Smart4xTrader community is for all traders to learn, share, and trade the forex market. Find forex trading systems, forex coaching, and forex live trading rooms. en Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:08:04 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/images/misc/rss.jpg Smart4xTrader - Blogs http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php Obama as President. What now for the Forex? http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=10 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 16:50:45 GMT A new defining moment has hit the history books today with Barack Obama being sworn in as the new President of the United States. With new hope and... A new defining moment has hit the history books today with Barack Obama being sworn in as the new President of the United States. With new hope and vision there are many in America and across the world that are looking to President Obama to pull us out of so many things that we have fallen into these last few years: the war, economic crisis, health care issues, etc. So how will the new President impact the foreign currency market and the recent volatility? Here is my view of the Good, Bad, and Ugly. (www.smart4xtrader.com)

THE GOOD – The new President does bring a vision of hope and the unexpected. Recent events has caused the Forex to be quite shaky – Credit Crisis, Global Economic Crisis, Job Loss, Bail Out plans and the like. Over the next few months we should expect the US dollar to continue to be a flight to quality currency (USD strong). Why? Because the world looks to a stable currency in a wild and unpredictable environment. The US is doing something about the chaos – now whether what we are doing is good or bad, is not the point. The short-term perspective investor is looking for stability. The US Dollar along with the Japanese Yen have been the two most stable currencies on the planet to put cash reserves in and that is why we will see the US Dollar continue to advance – or at least not lose value – until the beginnings of the 2nd quarter of this year.

THE BAD – The bad part of this new President is that as soon as this euphoric feeling of a new President that calls for “Change” has worn off, reality will set in. People will then again realize that the USD is weak at best agaist world currencies and will begin to lose favor in the eyes of global money pushers. Once the honeymoon is over, the headache from the party will begin to set in and things will turn for the worse. Now to President Obama’s credit, he has a plan to pull us out. Of all new Presidents he is probably the first to begin implementing the plan before he even gets into the White House.

THE UGLY – The ugly part will soon be upon us going in to the end of 2009. President Obama’s plans to save the economy comes down to one simple thing – spend our way out. Over $1 Trillion is proposed to be spend in 2009 to pull us out. What happens when you print money with no economic value to back it up – currency crash. The fiat currency can only be stretched so far. President Bush (W), did a mighty fine job stretching the dollar to almost snapping point. The Obama plan may finish the job. With over spending, huge national debt beyond understanding, and 0% interest rates money will run from the US like it was on fire. Look out world, we are setting up for a full on USD crash in 2009.

So What Can Be Done?
The solutions, from a currency stand point, are the same old pillars of freedom and prosperity that were established by the founding fathers. The challenge is that to get back to the original documents that our great nation was built upon the people are going to have to stop asking for government hand-outs – this includes the poor to the rich alike. People are going to need to take responsibility of their own actions. Here are some sign posts that we need to cross to get there:
• Stop spending money we don’t have
• First keep within budgets, then start cutting budgets
• Keep US jobs on US soil
• Deregulate small business instead of increase regulations
• Minimize the Welfare State and allow the Churches and Good Will of other citizens to take care of the poor
• Get rid of the Federal Reserve
• Tie our money back to Gold or something of real value

Impossible you think? Well we don’t need to change the world over night, just please can’t we change the direction a little bit. The farther we go down our current course the farther we get from our beginnings.

Something to think about.

As for trading the Forex – huge swings and huge volatility mean huge trade opportunities to profit in the Forex. I am looking for a very active and profitable year in the Forex in 2009.

Happy Trading! ]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=10 <![CDATA[Yesterday's Trades]]> http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=9 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 16:44:46 GMT Markets played out as expected. If you followed the system you would have got in on the hourly chart between 11pm - 12:30pm. I unfortunately went to... Markets played out as expected. If you followed the system you would have got in on the hourly chart between 11pm - 12:30pm. I unfortunately went to a breakfast and my sister-in-laws house thinking that I would easily be back before the 11am trigger time to make adjustments.

Nope - we didn't get back until almost 2pm and I missed the perfect entry. You got to love family outtings.

Nevertheless, the Swing strategy works again predicting the moves of the market. ]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=9 How to Make Money with Support and Resistance - Profit Targets http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=8 Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:07:04 GMT The first is Profit Targets. The majority of traders trade on emotion and close their trades when, 1- They have made enough money. 2- The problem... The first is Profit Targets. The majority of traders trade on emotion and close their trades when, 1- They have made enough money. 2- The problem with most traders is they have never made enough money. Just like Las Vegas, they stay in the game too long and give back all their profits to the house. Using support and resistance lines as levels to take your money off the table is a consistently winning strategy. What I like to do is to look for a close level of support/resistance for my Target 1 and then look at a further away support/resistance for Target 2. Once I hit Target 1, I take half of the lots off the table realizing profits, and then I allow the other half to ride toward Target 2. To conserve capital and eliminate the risk of loss, I will bring my stop loss up to breakeven or even set-up a trailing stop. Remember when you are in Buy trade you are looking for the next level of resistance to place your targets and if you are in a Sell trade then you are looking for the next level of support. Learn Forex Trading Systems at our site.
Happy Trading!

The second way to make money with these Forex support and Resistance levels is through money management. This actually comprises two aspects: 1) stop loss positioning and 2) Lot Sizing. A smart Forex stop loss is one placed below/above a key level of support/resistance. If you are in a Buy trade, place your stop loss 5 - 10 pips below the next level of support that is below your entry price. If you are in a Sell trade, you are going to place your stop loss 5 - 10 pips above the next resistance line. By doing this, you actually hire other world traders to protect your position. If price approaches your stop, other larger traders will step in to maintain price as explained in our last week’s article. Lot Sizing is another form of management that can be enhanced with these support/resistance levels. It all has to do with risk. If your profit targets compared to your stop loss are not large enough then your risk vs. reward is not exactly in your favor. Instead of trading and missing the trade set-up, minimize your lots to reduce risk. Vice versa, if the risk vs. reward is in your favor or Target 1 sits at a place that has a high probability of being reached, then you can take on more risk and increase your lot sizing and profits.
Make sure that you look both ways before you enter a trade in the Forex. Look behind you for potential risks that may keep price from going where you think it will go and also look for shelter for a solid stop loss. Look ahead of you to establish profit targets where price will most likely go. Support and Resistance Lines are the railings of the markets. Lean on them, trust them, and use them to better your trading. Learn additional Forex Trading Strategies at www.smart4xtrader.com .
Happy Trading! ]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=8 Swing Trades across the board http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=7 Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:03:58 GMT We have some great set-ups on the GBPJPY, EURJPY, and EURUSD looking at the 4H and 1H charts. This chart is just the GJ My orders are: ... We have some great set-ups on the GBPJPY, EURJPY, and EURUSD looking at the 4H and 1H charts.

This chart is just the GJ
My orders are:
SELL:132.58, SL:133.46, T1:131.10, T2:129.46

On the EJ - SELL:119.51, SL:120.82, T1:118.76, T2:117.10

Remember that today is a banking holiday - Martin King day
So it iwll take some time for price to settle back. We will need to make some adjustments to these orders as we go.
EURUSD set up as well. I will most likely wait until 11 to make my calculations on her.
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]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=7 Look Out for Support and Resistance http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=6 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 17:18:06 GMT First, the why. Support and resistance levels are created by at least one of two major things: volume and/or the mental phenomenon. Volume is the... First, the why. Support and resistance levels are created by at least one of two major things: volume and/or the mental phenomenon. Volume is the major cause of these levels and creates the strongest level of the two. When price is either bought or sold in a high volume amount at a certain price level, that level now becomes either support or resistance (support if price was bought up or resistance if price was sold down). Since a large body of trades entered the market at that price, lets say 1.2345, if price returns to that area, price is usually held by those initial traders through additional position taking. Traders add additional positions to hold the market from going against them. In addition, other traders that missed out on the opportunity to get in from the beginning, now jump in and follow the crowd. Hence, price is maintained beyond the initial entry level. The greater the volume at a given price, the stronger the level will be. Initial volume levels are strong, but they do tend to weaken overtime as traders close out positions for profits. These high volume levels are usually generate through news catalysts and that is why we see a lot of support and resistance lines initiated at 5:30 AM, 8:30 AM, and 9:30 PM EST as these are the times when most major news releases come out worldwide.
Our other explanation for levels of support and resistance is the mental phenomenon. We are taught from an early age to recognize that the world is made of numbers from price tags to how much we weigh, everything is associated with a number. Just like in sales, where a number ending in .99 makes the product seem less expensive then the even number .00, even though it is only one cent lower, the same goes for the forex. The mental numbers in the forex market are those even-whole numbers like: 10, 50, and 100. Price is going to find some form of support or resistance at these number levels as traders tend to respect price as these numbers are approached. Of course the larger the even number the better (Ex. 1.3000 or 2.0000). Whether there was volume at these levels or not you will find that price tends to hold for a time at these levels.
Learn Forex strategies like these and others at Smart4xTrader.com
Happy Trading! ]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=6 Look Both Ways Before you Cross the Street – Forex Street http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=5 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 17:17:12 GMT "Look both ways before you cross the street," is a phrase that we all heard as a child and now is a phrase that I say constantly to my own children. Why do we say this? Because we want our children to look for the potential dangers in front of them as well as those behind them. The same principle can be said with the forex market, but instead of looking for cars we are looking for support and resistance lines. Levels of support and resistance are what gives the markets shape and form. It is what keeps price from just drifting to the ends of the earth. Now to understand why these levels create shape to the markets you need to understand how they came about. We will cover the reasons why in this months tip and we will cover the what's and how to make money from support and resistance levels in later posts. ]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=5 Money Management http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=4 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 17:15:04 GMT There are many definitions of Money Management, from the use of a stop loss to how many lots you trade on each trade. My definition of Money... There are many definitions of Money Management, from the use of a stop loss to how many lots you trade on each trade. My definition of Money Management is safety of funds. The most important money in trading is the money you already have. Yes, it is important and required to risk some money to make profits, yet a true Money Management plan maximizes profits with as little risk as possible.

Once you have established a trading plan, practice your plan through some form of simulator or demo account. If you need a good trading plan, choose one of fifteen forex trading systems with Smart4xTrader. Log each trade and note all your orders (i.e. entry, stop loss, targets, etc.). After you have logged at least 30 trades, go back over these trades and look for the highest risk trades - those trades with the largest stop loss yet with the smallest potential return (Risk Reward Ratio). Establish rules to minimize this drawdown potential and test them over and new set of 30 trades. If these better your results then implement them into your trading plan. It is wise to evaluate your money management techniques every 100 trades to perfect your trading.

NOTE: Using Money Management techniques may actually lower your total return, but remember that Money Management is safety of funds first, profits second.

Happy Trading! ]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=4 Start of my Blog . . . http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=3 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:20:43 GMT As I encourage others to start their own blog, I decided that I should do the same. Why start a blog? Well there are many reasons to do so. You could... As I encourage others to start their own blog, I decided that I should do the same. Why start a blog? Well there are many reasons to do so. You could start a trading blog to share your success and/or frustrations. You could share your new trading technique and get feedback from other traders. Maybe you just want others to see your trades and comment on them.

Whatever the reason - do it! Your blogs will help you become a better trader and help the rest in the community.

I am starting my blog for the reason to share trading ideas and my personal trade setups. Here and there I plan on throwing in a few missed trades as well to lined up perfectly with the systems. As Smart4xTrader teaches in the Basic Training, by recording your trades, you can improve your preformance. Although it takes a bit extra effort to record the trades online, I plan on doing it and using this blog as my trading log online.

So we will see how it goes.

I will try to make the posts when I am entering the trades and as I make updates with charts and the like. Yet, with a demanding schedule that may be impossible. Nevertheless, I will come back and try to follow up with the trades and their outcomes.

Also, make sure you check out the chat rooms as I am an active participant in posting my trades and market analysis there as well.

My goal is to provide as much content to the Smart4xTrader community as possible to help others trade and get good constructive feedback from you on how to better my trading.

No one is perfect in this business, but a team of traders working unitedly to be better makes it very possible to be a "perfected trader"!

I welcome your comments and feedback.

Happy Trading! ]]> Richard.Ottley http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=3 Live Trading Rooms http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=2 Mon, 12 Jan 2009 23:58:53 GMT Smart4xTrader is announcing that move of the Live Trading Rooms to Level I access. That means the newest members will have access to the Live Trading... Smart4xTrader is announcing that move of the Live Trading Rooms to Level I access. That means the newest members will have access to the Live Trading Rooms and chats.

Check out Level I for access to the trading rooms. ]]> Smart4xTrader http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=2 My Best Trade http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=1 Mon, 22 Dec 2008 19:58:25 GMT I wanted to give this a test to see how it was working. I am going to make a post and also post a chart of a trade I made.

Let's see if it works.
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]]> Admin http://www.smart4xtrader.com/forum/blog.php?b=1